Counting down to NDP leadership vote

Why Peggy Nash could be Canada's next Opposition Leader.

by Bill Tieleman

Favourites win about 30-35 percent of the time, so in about two out of three races the favourite loses. 
– Good Horse Racing

If favourites were able to win every race, it could safely be presumed that Thomas Mulcair will be the next federal New Democratic Party leader at the end of voting March 24. But as the odds show, favourites don't always win horse races or political party leadership contests — which make it far more challenging to predict who will come out ahead.

In this NDP leadership race seven candidates are in the running but only two have a clear path to victory — Thomas Mulcair and Peggy Nash. My view is that the final ballot will have just those two names. Who wins will depend on a number of factors. But Nash has a real chance to become Leader of the Opposition with a come-from-behind finish.

 

 

I endorsed Nash some time ago after interviewing and researching the perceived frontrunners and all the other impressive candidates, so you can discount my analysis on that basis if you like. But you might also want to check my personal track record for political leadership contest endorsements — including Jack Layton, Gregor Robertson and Adrian Dix — as well as riding nominations. You'll find that it's very good.

I also want to make clear that while I think Peggy Nash is the best person to lead the NDP, I very much respect and appreciate the talents of Tom Mulcair, Brian Topp, Paul Dewar, Nathan Cullen, Niki Ashton and Martin Singh. Whoever wins March 24 will have my support — though that support is never unconditional, as regular readers know very well!

Here's why Peggy Nash has an excellent chance to win.

All political parties work towards internal consensus, notwithstanding the inherent conflict that leadership contests and local candidate nomination battles always engender. Once leadership is settled, the only way a party can win is through unity of message, vision and public image.

The Progressive Conservatives demonstrated the perils of ongoing disunity starting in the 1960s, while the federal Liberal Party dominated government time after time. When the Reform Party was created and split the PCs, both sides of the right-wing family were out of power until unity was restored. And when the Liberals turfed out a three-time winning Prime Minister Jean Chretien in a bloodless coup by Paul Martin, the party quickly spun out of power and into the ditch, where it remains today.

Peggy Nash has significant and broad support in the NDP but perhaps even more importantly, is the person most able to ensure party unity after the leadership contest ends. The challenge is to bring people together afterwards, not polarize the party with post-ballot internal politics. None of this is to suggest other candidates can't or won't do that — but of the main contenders, Nash has the best ability to bridge the gaps.

Nash also has the best skill set and experience combination to immediately become Canada's Leader of the Opposition.

When it comes to the key issues raised by the other NDP candidates, Nash's positions are nearly all very complementary to theirs, with some significant shared constituencies. Nash is strong on protecting the environment — like Cullen and Mulcair — and outspoken in opposing the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline proposal.

Nash is outspoken on her social democrat values, and with roots in the labour movement — like Topp. Nash is committed to electoral system reform — like Cullen, but without his controversial proposal on "electoral cooperation" with other parties. Nash is an experienced front bench Parliamentary critic — like Dewar and Mulcair.

Nash is fluent in French — like Mulcair and Topp. And Nash is an impressive woman — like Niki Ashton — in a political system still dominated by men.

Among the other contenders, Mulcair is an outstanding politician, who overcame Brian Topp's early lead to become frontrunner. He has formidable experience in government as a Quebec cabinet minister and front bench NDP MP.

But the animosity between Mulcair and Topp is significant and public. Quebec in particular has seen a significant division between the two candidates with deep roots in that province. And Mulcair was quick early on to publicly criticize United Steel Workers' Canadian Director Ken Neumann — a Topp backer — in a way that shocked many in labour. Neumann is very well regarded in both NDP and labour circles, so Mulcair's intemperate words — and claims that Topp was "beholden" to big unions — definitely caused waves.

Topp has a lengthy and successful record at the senior levels of both provincial and federal politics, playing a major role in Jack Layton's success, as well as that of the Roy Romanow government in Saskatchewan. And he has endorsements from many senior New Democrats, including Romanow and former NDP leader Ed Broadbent.

But the criticisms that Broadbent and Topp have publicly made about Mulcair in recent weeks — including questioning Mulcair's social democratic commitment and lack of support from veteran MPs — have created a backlash with some members and especially Mulcair supporters.

Nathan Cullen has run an effective campaign and is personally engaging — but his main idea of "electoral cooperation" through joint nominating meetings with Liberals and Greens to pick a single candidate in Conservative held ridings has split the NDP and is a non-starter for many. Some, like myself, believe that had this strategy been followed in the 2011 election, the Liberal Party would be the official opposition today — not the NDP. And that rescuing the Liberals now from their own self-inflicted troubles can only come at the expense of the NDP's chances to form government in 2015.

Paul Dewar has also gone after Mulcair and his alleged bad temper and attack-style politics, saying in Vancouver that Jack Layton was a "happy warrior" and that Mulcair had only gotten down the "warrior" part quite well. Dewar himself has created a different divide — over his perceived lack of ability in French and the impact that would have in Quebec.

Niki Ashton has acquitted herself very well. She has demonstrated considerable ability and knowledge, and is multilingual. But she just isn't in the running this time. Martin Singh was a complete unknown before this contest and unfortunately, while he has performed above expectations, he has now become ensnared in controversy over his and his former key staff person's endorsement of Mulcair as their second ballot choice.

Throughout all this, Nash has run a positive and constructive campaign and avoided creating splits in the party. Nash has also continued to build support in all regions of the country while emphasizing the importance of a social democratic opposition movement — not just a party— that will take on the Stephen Harper Conservatives.

And Nash easily meets all the requirements to become leader. She is a sitting MP with experience in Parliament; bilingual; tenacious but gracious, a demonstrated commitment to progressive politics and a belief in social democracy; real-life leadership skills to bring to the role; an ability to show poise under pressure and perhaps most importantly, a willingness to listen.

I was very impressed with Peggy's performance at the Vancouver NDP debate — and I wasn't alone. Here's what Globe and Mail TV critic John Doyle said after that televised debate:

"Peggy Nash's presence, measured tone and nuanced answers had the strongest resonance. There's a fortitude and pragmatism projected in her onscreen persona that's vivid and, memorably, she uses wit, not put-downs.

"There's the air of a woman who has seen and heard plenty of male bluster but knows that bluster doesn't get the job done. Interestingly, there were seven candidates speaking and debating, and some barely registered at all.

"A series of TV debates is a darn good idea when choosing a new leader for a party. TV is the vehicle that takes a leader to power or oblivion, in the end," Doyle concludes. I heartily agree.

So what will happen on March 24? On the first ballot, Mulcair will be ahead — but by how much? And what is his growth potential after that? If his lead over the closest contenders is not substantial, he faces an increasingly difficult road to win.

Nash likely needs to be in second or third place on that ballot. Topp, Cullen and Dewar all hope to be second or a close third — but they can't all be in the same position. Singh and then Ashton will finish low and be forced out in the early rounds, with their probably relatively few votes being redistributed to their backers' second choices without significant impact.

Then the situation gets very tense indeed for all involved — and harder still to predict. Several factors are at play, not the least being the provincial distribution of membership.

Alice Funke at her Pundits' Guide website always has fascinating data and analysis. She points out that BC and Ontario "will have the lion's share of the say over the outcome of the NDP leadership race," according to the party's official final membership numbers. That means notwithstanding Mulcair's and Topp's strength in Quebec, BC with 38,735 and Ontario with 36,760 for a combined 59 percent of all members, will hold the deciding votes.

The NDP now has a total of 128,351 members. But history shows that nowhere near a 100 percent turnout will occur — which means Get Out The Vote efforts and superior organization will maximize vote counts.

In the 2011 BC NDP leadership contest that chose Adrian Dix, the party had close to 30,000 members and obtained a 71 percent voter turnout. A similar turnout would be a reasonable expectation in this federal race.

Money is one indication of organization, and as Pundits' Guide again details, while Mulcair has raised the most with $238,000 to February 18, Topp is close behind at $214,000, Dewar at $170,000, Nash at $163,000 and Cullen at $155,000. Cullen has raised the most in February, as he gained attention, but nearly 75 percent of his funding is coming from BC, which may indicate his national appeal is less than it seems. But the money gap between these candidates is not extreme and it does not appear any are being restricted by funding shortfalls — not if the number of home phone calls from all camps is any indication!

Internal member polling released to the media by Paul Dewar's campaign claimed that only three candidates have a path to win — Mulcair, Nash and Dewar — but take note that the polling was 1) conducted for one campaign and 2) now dated, since it took place February 8-9. Nonetheless, that poll and other information seem to indicate that Topp has been dropping and Cullen rising in party support. But will that be borne out in the results?

One very different, interesting and unique attempt to track candidate success is at website ThreeHundredEight — where Eric Grenier has compiled an ongoing "endorsement ranking" list. Grenier gives a range of different points to candidates' endorsers — with more points for veteran MPs than rookies and union leaders' points are based on the number of members they represent, for example.

Currently Grenier has Mulcair at 27.9 percent of all public endorsements, Topp at 26.9 percent and Nash at 23.9 percent. The ranking drops considerably after that, down to Dewar at 13.2 percent, Cullen at 5.2 percent, Ashton at 3 percent and Singh with none. Grenier doesn't claim that the results are conclusive — just an indication of where candidates may end up on the first ballot.

Grenier states: "Having endorsements generally means a better and/or more motivated organization, and a better and/or more motivated organization will more successfully deliver votes on the metaphorical convention floor."

So with these various factors weighed and considered, let's go back to the leadership voting rounds of March 24. Whoever is in last place after Singh and Ashton have been eliminated in earlier rounds will be dropped. Will it be Dewar, Cullen or Topp? I'm obviously biased toward my chosen candidate but I certainly do not see Nash placing fifth, nor have most observers.

The Dewar polling — remember the source and timing — showed that Nash is the dominant second choice candidate for both Topp and Dewar supporters, with 30.4 percent of Topp's voters going next to Nash and 27.7 percent of Dewar voters. Cullen voters' top second choice is Dewar at 24.9 percent, followed by Nash at 18.6 percent and Mulcair at 18.2 percent.

If this polling is still roughly accurate, and if Mulcair is not in a dominant balloting position close to the 50 percent plus one needed to win, then Nash will get the biggest boost with second choice votes from either Topp or Dewar dropping out. If Cullen is dropped before Dewar, Paul would get the most boost from those second choice ballots, though Nash and Mulcair would not be far behind. And then other factors will also come into play.

Will there be a convention voting dynamic of movement as each ballot is dramatically announced? Could there be endorsements of remaining candidates by fallen contenders in attempts to convince their supporter to go to one of those left in the race? Will it make a major difference?

Yes and yes — and perhaps.

It's important to remember that more than 80 percent of NDP voters will have cast their preferential ballots by mail or online in advance and will not be voting live. And to date, there has been no published schedule of how live voting will take place, or what how much time will take place between rounds of voting.

Given that the roughly 2,000 delegates to the Toronto leadership convention will need to physically vote on site, it could be 2 or more hours to vote and calculate results. That will mean online voters dropping off due to fatigue, other pressing demands, etc. Not everyone will spend eight or more hours at the TV or computer waiting to vote each time. That said, if the race is very close and a few thousands votes either way will determine the winner, then online and in person voting based on who is left will indeed be decisive.

So back again to the next round of voting. Everything depends on each candidates' position in the race and how close a winner is to the 50 percent plus one mark. If Mulcair is achingly close to that, the next ballot will likely make him the winner, since he will gain some votes no matter who drops off. But if Mulcair is still a fair ways from 50 percent, he becomes increasingly vulnerable to being the frontrunner that loses on the final ballot.

In my scenario for Nash to win, Dewar, Cullen and Topp will need to be dropped from the successive rounds of balloting — in whatever order — with more of their votes going to Nash or a lower placing candidate still remaining than to Mulcair. This is not an easy road to win but it is a familiar successful scenario to anyone who has long followed leadership contests of parties in Canada and around the world.

Often a candidate has the most initial support but not a majority within their party and their early lead is insufficient to win when party voters coalesce around the most viable alternative candidate. Is Thomas Mulcair in that position? Hard to say but it's certainly quite possible.

In my view, Peggy Nash is definitely the most viable alternative candidate to Mulcair. And for that reason, Peggy Nash could well become the New Democratic Party's next leader — and Canada's Leader of the Opposition.

We'll find out on March 24.

eMail: weststar@telus.net   Website: http://billtieleman.blogspot.com

© Copyright 2012 Bill Tieleman, All rights Reserved. Written For: StraightGoods.ca