Can the NDP regain its momentum under Thomas Mulcair?
by Geoffrey Stevens
Ever since their breakthrough election of May 2, 2011, several huge questions have hung over the New Democratic Party.
Did that election — 103 seats, 59 of them in Quebec — signal a tectonic shift in national politics? Or was it an aberration, a fling, the political equivalent of a one-night stand?
Could the NDP consolidate its position as the official opposition? Or would it lose its momentum and slip back into its accustomed (and comfortable) third-place position?
Could the New Democrats develop the policies and the personnel to present themselves as a viable government party, a creditable alternative to Stephen Harper's Conservatives? Or would they let the Liberals reclaim that fighting ground?
Not least, could the NDP do it without Jack Layton? Layton took them halfway up the mountain. Could the party find a new leader to lead them, or carry them, to the summit?
Nearly 11 months after the breakthrough, and eight months after Layton's death, those questions remain unanswered. The leadership convention on the weekend might have an answered some of them, but it didn't. Instead showed how much wind has gone out of NDP sails since last May.
From what I could see on television, the convention did not fire up the troops. It did not generate the sort of excitement one might expect from members of a party who, after years of beating their heads against a wall, find themselves in command in Quebec and on the cusp (or within sight of the cusp) of power in Ottawa.
The computer snafus, originating from outside hackers (where was "Pierre Poutine" on the weekend?), certainly didn't help. The hacking dragged out the voting and left delegates exhausted. None of the leadership candidates was able to ignite the crowd in Toronto's convention centre. Thomas Mulcair's acceptance speech on Saturday night was one of the flattest I have ever heard from a victor at a national political convention.
Mulcair needs to muscle his way to the centre of the opposition stage, to capture it from Bob Rae and the Liberals.
There will be no rest for him this week. Parliament resumes today and the Tories will present their restraint budget on Thursday. Mulcair will need to be at the top of his game and to exploit two of his great assets — his perfect fluency in both languages and his ability to perform in front of the television cameras. The latter is crucial in an age when most Canadians get most of their political intelligence from television, especially from the leaders' sound bites outside the Commons.
Mulcair needs to muscle his way to the centre of the opposition stage, to capture it from Bob Rae and the Liberals. The loss of Layton, the too-long leadership race, and the uninspiring interim leadership of Nycole Turmel, so badly out of her depth, cost the NDP precious momentum. Meanwhile, the Liberals regained some of their mojo.
Rae, who is probably the most effective debater on either side of the Commons aisle, established himself as a fierce and intelligent critic who is not at all afraid to go toe-to-toe with Harper. In recent months, he has made himself the de facto leader of the opposition, despite having only 34 seats to the NDP's 103.
The arrival of Mulcair as NDP leader may change that. NDP did not choose him because he has an engaging Layton-like personality. He doesn't. The new leader is a bit of a prickly fellow.
They chose him over the party establishment's preferred candidate, Brian Topp, for two reasons: they thought Mulcair could best build on the party's new strength in Quebec; and they were prepared to gamble that Mulcair could, as they said, "take down Harper."
Taking down Harper will not be a quick or easy process. He has done an amazing job of consolidating his power. There is no assurance that Mulcair or Rae, separately or together, can take him down.
But with the two of them — both powerful performers — in his face every day, the prime minister's days will become more vexing. And that's not a bad thing at all.
eMail: geoffstevens@sympatico.ca
About Geoffrey Stevens
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens, an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail, teaches political science at Wilfrid Laurier University and the University of Guelph. He welcomes comments at the address below. This article appeared in the Waterloo Region Record and the Guelph Mercury.
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