Christy Clark and the Canucks on the ropes.
by Bill TielemanIt's a tough one. You know, winning three byelections for the government …in a 12-month period is probably harder than getting a Stanley Cup.
– BC Premier Christy Clark
The Vancouver Canucks will find out shortly just how hard it is to advance in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, let alone take home the shiny silver mug.
And Premier Christy Clark will find out Thursday night if she does even better than that — but it's highly unlikely the BC Liberals can win either by-elections in Port Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope to go along with her narrow Vancouver-Point Grey win last year, let alone both.
While Clark and her team are desperately dampening byelection expectations with Stanley Cup analogies, there are other ways of viewing BC political history that are far more telling.
Clark is correct in saying that: "The only by-election that government has won in 30 years was the one that I won in Vancouver-Point Grey this last year, so you know we're battling tough odds in this."
But consider another set of statistics that is equally, if not more valid.
Since 1952 BC incumbent parties have won 67.5 percent of by-elections, while rival parties won in just 32.5 percent of cases.
Since 1952 the incumbent party in a BC by-election has won 67.5 percent of those contests, while rival parties won the seat in just 32.5 precent of those votes.
In other words, the party in office before the byelection has won them two out of every three times for the past 60 years.
That makes Clark's victory last year less impressive — and adds pressure on the BC Liberals to win at least one of the byelections to keep up with those statistics.
The BC Liberals' easy 2009 provincial election wins in Port Moody-Coquitlam with 52 percent to the BC New Democrats' 40 percent, and Chilliwack-Hope with 53 percent to the NDP's 33 percent, made these safe seats, but not any more.
With an Angus Reid Public Opinion poll showing the BC Liberals tied with the resurgent BC Conservatives at just 23 percent each, and the BC NDP at 43 percent, Clark's chances of taking home the Stanley Cup of provincial politics look decidedly bleak.
And like the Vancouver Canucks, losing brings the extreme risk of a change of team manager.
Bill Tieleman, president of West Star Communications, is one of BC's best known political commentators and communicators. Read political commentary from Bill every Tuesday in 24 hours, Vancouver's free weekday newspaper (also online) and in The Tyee — BC's award-winning online magazine. Follow on Twitter
eMail: weststar@telus.net Website: http://billtieleman.blogspot.com
About Bill Tieleman
Bill Tieleman, president of West Star Communications, is one of BC's best known political commentators and communicators. Read political commentary from Bill every Tuesday in 24 hours, Vancouver's free weekday newspaper (also online) and in The Tyee — BC's award-winning online magazine.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.