Bob Rae’s next steps

Interim Liberal leader surely weighing his options.

by Geoffrey Stevens

With the House of Commons enjoying another extended break — nine days to celebrate Victoria Day — this is a quiet time to ponder a question that perplexes friends and colleagues: What is next for Bob Rae?

Rae has been filling in as federal Liberal leader since the disaster of the 2011 general election, when the former natural governing party was reduced to third-party status. The word is out in Ottawa that Rae will resign as interim leader next month. The party's board of directors is expected to rescind its edict that the interim leader not be allowed to run for the permanent position. And, as speculation has it, Rae will be a candidate at the leadership convention a year from now.

Is the speculation correct? Does it make any sense? Will Rae actually run for the Liberal leadership? Or will he decide, after 34 years in federal and provincial politics, that it is time to pursue other interests?

There is no doubt in anyone's mind that, if the Liberals were still the official opposition, Rae would go flat out for the leadership, knowing he might well find himself at 24 Sussex as early as October 2015, when the next election is scheduled.

But there is no fast track for the Liberals these days. The NDP is entrenching itself as Canada's number two party. It is running (roughly) even in the polls with the governing Conservatives. Its base is more solid, younger and better distributed than the Liberals'.

As well, NDP leader Thomas Mulcair is outperforming expectations. An observer would have to say that if Stephen Harper is gone by late 2015, the new PM is more likely to be Mulcair than Rae.

Rae will be 64 this August (Harper just turned 53; Mulcair is 57). In October 2015, Rae will be 67. Although he is healthy and more vigorous than politicians 20 years his junior, the reality is that, if he did not win in 2015, he would be 71 by the time the next election rolled around (2019 in the normal course). That would make him the oldest person ever to become prime minister — with the exception of Charles Tupper who was 74 when he got there (by appointment, not election) in 1896.

Among the older newbie PMs, "Uncle" Louis St. Laurent was 66, Lester Pearson was 65, John Diefenbaker was 61 and Jean Chrétien was 59, while Rae's contemporaries Joe Clark and Brian Mulroney were 39 and 45, respectively.

Age is only one consideration, and not the most important one. Rae has all the tools. He is very smart (a Rhodes Scholar in his university days), fluently bilingual and experienced (a federal MP on two occasions, premier of a major province and now interim leader of a national party). He is a star debater in Parliament. He has written books, taught university, headed inquiries and produced reports on everything from post-secondary education to the Air India disaster.

Some of Rae's friends and associates believe he would be a natural for the soon-to-be-available position of president of his alma mater, the University of Toronto. David Naylor's term as U of T president expires at the end of 2013; he has declined an extension to 2015. The search for a successor is on. Although Rae was a popular success as chancellor of Wilfrid Laurier University between 2003 and 2008, it appears that the U of T is searching for a another heavy-duty academic like Naylor, a physician-scholar whose resume runs to 54 pages on the internet.

The Liberal party is the Humpty Dumpty of federal politics. It's had its great fall. Why would Rae, who will surely have less stressful options, want to spend the next five or 10 years trying to put Humpty together again? It's a chore that would take all the king's horses and all the king's men — and more.

It might well take a coalition or merger with the NDP. Now, there's a thought worth pursuing!

 

© Copyright 2012 Geoffrey Stevens, All rights Reserved. Written For: StraightGoods.ca