By-election could possibly give Ontario Liberals a scant majority.
by Geoffrey Stevens
If Dalton McGuinty had his eye on the ball, he would waste no more time in calling the provincial by-election in Kitchener-Waterloo. He would then throw the Liberal treasury, the kitchen sink, and anything else he can lay his hands on, into the fray.
Kitchener-Waterloo offers McGuinty his best (perhaps only) opportunity to realize his fondest dream: a return to a majority Liberal government (albeit with a bare majority: 54 of the 107 seats).
The seat has been vacant since April 27 when Conservative Elizabeth Witmer resigned to accept appointment as chair of the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board, a provincial agency. The premier did not hesitate to expend that patronage plum ($188,000 a year plus pension) to get Witmer out of her seat, yet he hesitates to call a byelection to get a Liberal into it.
He's within his rights to delay. Ontario election law, like federal law, allows the government six months to call a byelection. That's six months in which to declare a date, not six months in which to hold a vote. This means McGuinty has until Oct. 27 to choose a date, which could be any time in the future, even a year or two down the road.
Mind you, stretching out the process would send a signal to the opposition that the government fears it cannot win. Opposition politicians can smell fear. For McGuinty, it would mean even more grief with the opposition leaders who marched him toward the precipice of defeat last week.
Just when he thought he had cleverly bought off NDP leader Andrea Horwath to acquire the support of the NDP's 17 members, she returned to haggle for more budget scraps.
If Dalton McGuinty were to endorse motherhood, Tim Hudak would accuse him of bad-mouthing fatherhood.
Tim Hudak, who leads the allegedly "Progressive" Conservative party, simply says "No" to everything Liberal; if McGuinty were to endorse motherhood, Hudak would accuse him of bad-mouthing fatherhood. McGuinty can expect more of the same from Horwath and Hudak until he deals with Kitchener-Waterloo.
The premier doesn't have much to lose by holding the by-election sooner than later. Three reasons:
- First, the region is already sea of Tory blue. The only islands of Grit red are Guelph (where Liz Sandals is dug in) and Kitchener Centre (where Liberal John Milloy barely escaped defeat in the last election).
- Second, Witmer may be gone, but she left behind a 4,000-vote Tory plurality.
- Third, no one really expects governing parties to win by-elections, especially in seats they do not already hold.
The odds are probably 3-1 against the Liberals winning Kitchener-Waterloo. But if McGuinty could pull it off, it would give the Liberals an opportunity to concentrate on running the province rather than on simply surviving another day, as they have been doing since October. It would knock Horwath out of her deal-maker role, and it would empower McGuinty to tell Hudak to button his lip until he has something useful to contribute.
There is no reason to suspect McGuinty will take any of this sensible advice. The premier seems content to play a waiting game, perhaps to pick off a few more opposition members via the patronage route, as he did Witmer, and thin their ranks that way, rather than risk a close encounter with the electorate.
McGuinty suffers from not having a senate to offer to seducible Tories or New Democrats. On the other hand, MPPs no longer have a pension plan (thanks to Mike Harris), which makes some them vulnerable to offers of positions on a variety of provincial boards and commissions, however obscure they may be.
The Conservatives have nominated a candidate in Kitchener-Waterloo. She's Karen Weiler, an academic and business consultant; she seems bright and personable, if unknown in the political trenches. She is reportedly already knocking on doors. The Liberals haven't even scheduled a nomination meeting.
I suspect they know they will need a special candidate to take the riding. But political stars are in short supply these days, as their leadership-bereft Liberal brethren in Ottawa might attest.
About Geoffrey Stevens
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens, an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail, teaches political science at Wilfrid Laurier University and the University of Guelph. He welcomes comments at the address below. This article appeared in the Waterloo Region Record and the Guelph Mercury.
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