Ontario by-election frenzy

from Inside Queen's Park, Vol 25 No 18.

by Inside Queen's Park

As you were ?
IQP has carefully mapped the outcomes of all Ontario provincial by-elections held from 1977 to 2011 — 48 in total. Do their outcomes illuminate the pair now being conducted?. The first thing to note is that the partisan stripe of the ridings contested in by-elections changed in only 14 of those contests (29 percent, less than a third) — which is to say that the seats in contention in the other 34 by-elections (71 percent, well over two-thirds) stayed in government or opposition hands just as they had started out.

But it is interesting that our by-election sample of 48 seats was not evenly balanced: 27 were initially held by opposition members and the remaining 21 by government members. Although that suggests more opposition seats up for grabs, in fact it was the opposition which gained ground and the government which lost it. Five government seats were lost, reducing its total from 21 to 16, while the opposition gained those 5 seats to boost its total from 27 seats to 32. In the 48 by-election contests, the government started with 44 percent and fell to 33 percent, whereas the opposition started with 56 percent of seats decided in by-elections and finished with 66 percent of them.

Premier McGuinty has said from time to time that governments find it harder than opposition parties to win by-elections. The above figures suggest he is right to some degree.

But we should not forget that some by-elections result in seats switching between opposition parties. Indeed, opposition parties lost almost as many by-election contests, namely 6, as did governments, 8.

Bargain or else
Getting religion over the deficit did not overwhelm the Ontario government like the biblical blinding light, but its concerns can be traced back well before the 2011 election with increasing clarity and urgency. Finance minister Dwight Duncan's "Managing Through Difficult Times" speech, delivered to the Canadian Club in December 2010, took aim at government and public sector expenditures and accountability. Public sector compensation was also addressed in Budget 2011 ("Turning the Corner to a Better Tomorrow", March 29, 2011). And that Budget announced the engagement of the Don Drummond Commission on Reform of Public Services to assist in the deficit-slaying crusade by identifying ways to reduce costs — though not by increasing taxes.

The volume was turned up on that message by highlighting "the issue of compensation" in Budget 2012 ("Strong Action for Ontario", March 27, 2012). Duncan planned to contain spending by reaching "respectful" collective agreements with the government's "public sector partners". But it would resort to "administrative and legislative measures" if it could not reach cost-cutting agreements.

Time for Plan B — a blueprint for the government's imposition of collective agreements conforming to the "framework agreement" reached by the government's negotiators with OECTA [Ontario English Catholic Teachers Association], which the government demands be implemented by separate school boards. There are differences, to be sure, but the terse decrees laid down by hard-nosed Education minister Laurel Broten do put one in mind of Mike Harris. (And we don't mean the non-confrontational Michael Harris, MPP for Kitchener-Conestoga.)

Yet unless the McGuinty minority government wins both currently pending by-elections, how can it expect to legislate contracts which it cannot compel some of its "educational partners" to negotiate? After all, the PCs and NDP sound no more eager to cast votes to impose peace in the schools on terms dictated by the "Education Premier" than they were to swallow Budget 2012. Peace in the schools won't be replicated by peace in the pink palace. Too bad for the 127K voters in Kitchener-Waterloo and the 154K in Vaughan that they look likely to have a general election right top of their by-election jaunts.

The Premier surely remembers his sharply critical poll numbers when voters contemplated an election over rejection of Budget 2012. So long as ETFO [Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario] and OSSTF [Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation] keep the classrooms open in September, as they have promised to do, the Liberals will find it difficult to get voters to join this fight.

Holding on in Vaughan, where Forum Research this week found Greg Sorbara's close aide Steven Del Duca has lost support but is still more than ten points ahead of the PCs — who are again running renegade Liberal candidate Tony Genco in what clearly remains a two-way race — would not improve on the bare minority secured by the Liberals last October. Losing Vaughan would be horribly disconcerting for the LIBs.

The current by-election test was contrived by Premier McGuinty when he enticed Elizabeth Witmer to resign her Kitchener-Waterloo seat back in April. It was seen as a by-election for Tim Hudak to lose, on top of the general election challenge which the PCs did indeed lose ten months back. But the Forum poll shows the Liberals and NDP even at 30 percent with the PCs at 34 percent. The PCs are running ex-RIM executive Tracey Weiler, the Liberals are fielding lawyer Eric Davis, their 2011 candidate, and the NDP has an unexpected K-W shot with prominent school trustee Catherine Fife.

The NDP is getting excited at the possibility of taking this seat because party leader Andrea Horwath leads the field with approval ratings of 49 percent, 16 points ahead of the Liberal leader and 24 points in front of the PC leader. The NDP may not deliver on this mouth-watering prospect but if it does win, there will be calls for both other leaders to quit.

The K-W contest: Someone's Waterloo?
Jon Olinski, Part Two of his by-election analysis.

The Liberal standard-bearer
Initially I supposed the LIBs would acclaim Eric Davis, who challenged Witmer strongly in 2011. But they opted for a spirited nomination battle with three strong contenders and a preferential ballot, getting strong media coverage and evident momentum — and they are running Eric Davis, to boot.

The PC pick
The PCs wisely got their nomination completed early to give as much time as possible to introduce candidate Tracey Weiler to the voting public and (more importantly) to get onto as many doorsteps as possible to revise PC voter identification lists. Word is that she has spent six to eight hours per day canvassing since her nomination in June. In addition to gauging party versus Witmer support, the PCs need to take knowledge gained from voters and develop local messaging that is in line with their recent, stronger policy announcements. Like the Liberals' this campaign will be fully funded and well supported by vacationing staffers, as well as the Leader's office which knows that these election results will have an impact on their boss's future, one way or another.

Local Issues
All politics is local and this election is no exception. A few organizations have already done an excellent job using the local media to bring their issues to the forefront. One such is traffic congestion — and raising inaction on the promised expansion of Highway 7 which connects Kitchener and Guelph has already scared up a Liberal campaign promise. And with unemployment climbing rapidly because of lost manufacturing jobs — with the iconic Schneider plant scheduled to close in 2014 and the fear of additional job losses at Research In Motion — the government has this week opened a local job action centre.

Media bubble
Unlike Toronto's seemingly unlimited media outlets and publications to focus your opinion on political matters, Kitchener-Waterloo is well served by a smaller number of home grown local media. The Metroland group publishes the local daily — Waterloo Region Record, and two free local weekly papers — the Waterloo Chronicle and Kitchener Post. These publications are well read by area residents and provide excellent and for the most part fair and balanced coverage on area political issues. A single story or misstep by candidates will be well covered by the Record's Luisa D'Amato, the reporter mainly responsible for covering politics. The Region is also served by AM 570 News, which offers a combination of news and traffic reports during the traffic rush hours and nine hours of local talk radio during the workday and into the late afternoon. On television, CTV News has a local broadcast three times a day and Rogers has its own station dedicated to serving the residents of the area. Appearances by the leaders and all-candidates debates will be well covered by these outlets. Coverage by Toronto media will be for the benefit of those living outside of the riding only, and will have minimal impact on informing the decision of undecided voters.

One final thought
While some people would like to believe that everyone in Kitchener-Waterloo will be casing their vote solely based on provincial issues and will heavily weigh the question of a Liberal majority versus no majority, this will not likely be the deciding factor for many voters in the riding. Putting the electoral fate of the province in the hands of the residents of a riding, where 25,000 to 35,000 college and university students could shift the balance of power, may be a little unnerving. But based on my first-hand experience of that community, I believe that I can assure readers of IQP that we are in good hands with the people of Kitchener-Waterloo.

© Copyright 2012 Inside Queen's Park, All rights Reserved. Written For: StraightGoods.ca