Byelection voters are free agents, free to back the candidate they like best.
by Geoffrey Stevens
If ever there were a time when conditions have conspired to create a political upset, that time would be this week in Kitchener-Waterloo. Voters in the provincial riding go to the polls on Thursday in a byelection to choose a successor to Elizabeth Witmer. She held the riding for 22 years, from its creation in 1999 until last April, when she resigned to accept a patronage appointment from the Liberal government.
Consider the conditions. This being a byelection, there is no incumbent member. Nor is there really an incumbent party. Witmer won four consecutive elections on the strength of her personal performance at Queen’s Park, not because of her political affiliation, which happened to be Progressive Conservative.
The riding has always been competitive. Witmer won handily, but not hugely, each time — with a bit over 40 percent of the vote, a few points ahead of her Liberal opponent — with the NDP trailing, but closing in.
NDP’s “No Majority” campaign seems to be gathering steam as voting day nears.
A byelection is a wonderful opportunity for voters to do whatever they want. They can vote any way they wish without making more than a short-term commitment. They are not choosing or changing a government. They are not making or unmaking a premier. They are not embracing any particular set of policies. If they regret their decision, they can easily correct it at the next general election.
Byelection voters are free agents, free to back the candidate they like best. This is not always the case in general elections, where party policy, leader and organization – not to mention party spending – loom so large.
This otherwise ordinary byelection has been hyped far beyond the boundaries of Kitchener-Waterloo because of the unusual situation the McGuinty Liberals find themselves in. If they win K-W and hold Vaughan (a Liberal seat with a byelection the same day), they would have a majority government again. But the Liberal pitch for a majority is not resonating. In fact, NDP’s “No Majority” campaign seems to be gathering steam as voting day nears.
There are some issues, the deficit being one of them and the confrontation with teachers and public servants being another. I don’t sense that either is a game-changer. Nor, I sense, is leadership. Both Dalton McGuinty and PC leader Tim Hudak are a drag on their candidates, and NDP leader Andrea Horwath is only a modest asset.
If it is not issues, or leadership, or organization (the parties seem pretty equal in that department), what will make the difference on Thursday? I think this is one of the relatively rare elections when candidates will tell the tale.
There are 10 candidates, of whom four merit serious consideration. Stacey Danckert, the Green candidate, has gained poise as the campaign went on, but she will be doing well if she gets more than 5 percent of the vote. Liberal Eric Davis took 36 percent of the vote when he ran against Witmer in the 2011 election. This time, however, he carries the burden of the McGuinty government’s unpopularity; he will be hard-pressed to reach 36 percent again.
I think the contest boils down to Tracey Weiler, the PC candidate, and Catherine Fife, for the NDP. Weiler, a university instructor and business consultant, is a first-time candidate and her inexperience shows. Fife is more combat-ready. She ran against Witmer in 2007 and did better than any New Democrat before or since. Like Witmer, she cut her political chops on the local school board, the last two years as chair.
Of the four, she is the most polished platform performer, able to answer questions without relying on pre-packaged talking points. Watching and listening to her, she reminds me of Liz Witmer, which is not a bad thing for a candidate in K-W.
The NDP has a steep hill to climb. It may be too steep. But there is excitement in NDP ranks today. If an upset is coming, my guess is that Catherine Fife will be the beneficiary.
About Geoffrey Stevens
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens, an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail, teaches political science at Wilfrid Laurier University and the University of Guelph. He welcomes comments at the address below. This article appeared in the Waterloo Region Record and the Guelph Mercury.
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