So far, ten BC Liberal MLAs have announced they will not run again.
Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good; When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.
– Led Zeppelin – When The Levee Breaks (Originally written by Memphis Minnie and Kansas Joe McCoy)
The BC Liberal levee broke last week. By the end of political hurricane season, many of its MLAs will be adrift, not running for re-election.
The sudden resignations of Finance Minister Kevin Falcon and Education Minister George Abbott in just 24 hours only indicates the extreme severity of the storm Premier Christy Clark faces, not its length.
The departure of Clark’s two closest leadership rivals in 2011’s contest is more than just planned retirement — it is a non-confidence vote in Clark, no matter how much they deny it.
In the two election tsunamis that all but wiped out the New Democrat government in 2001 and Social Credit in 1991, each party had 15 MLAs decline to face voters.
Add in last week’s announcement that Children and Family Development Minister Mary McNeil and Clark’s Parliamentary Secretary John Les also won’t run, and the total so far is 10 BC Liberal MLAs bowing out.
Even Clark says to expect more announcements soon from other BC Liberals who won’t run again in the May 2013 election.
After all, with the BC NDP at 45 percent in polls, the BC Liberals at just 23 percent and the BC Conservatives at 22 percent, most Clark MLAs would lose — barring a miracle turnaround.
And remaining BC Liberals face a difficult challenge, according to Vernon-Monashee MLA Eric Foster.
“The ship isn’t sinking,” Foster says. “It’s our job to make sure people know this isn’t the case.”
Not sinking? There’s an awful lot of water on the decks.
In the two election tsunamis that all but wiped out the New Democrat government in 2001 and Social Credit in 1991, each party had 15 MLAs decline to face voters.
Odds are the BC Liberals will match or beat that total, making the unflattering comparison inevitable.
But there’s more trouble. Former BC Liberal strategist Alise Mills suggested on CBC Radio last Wednesday that Falcon’s resignation indicates senior government members don’t have confidence in Clark.
“If George Abbott leaves tomorrow as is widely rumoured, that adds a lot of credibility on what Kevin Falcon did today and now we’ve got a question of leadership,” said Mills, an ex-Falcon leadership supporter who is no longer a BC Liberal Party member.
Will the BC Liberals survive to fight another day?
Leave the last word to Mills: “I don’t think the BC Liberal Party will exist.”
About Bill Tieleman
Bill Tieleman, president of West Star Communications, is one of BC's best known political commentators and communicators. Read political commentary from Bill every Tuesday in 24 hours, Vancouver's free weekday newspaper (also online) and in The Tyee — BC's award-winning online magazine.
One Response to “BC Liberal levee breaks: MLAs flowing out”
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How much does the average Liberal politician know about political liberalism anyway? It's been 30 years since Liberals practiced the principles of liberalism.
Personally, I have trouble with liberalism, but it's definitely preferable to whatever brand of fascism it is that the Conservatives are presently practicing. If Liberal parties across Canada had any brains, they'd hit the books and past records of Liberal governance and find out what they're supposed to be about.