A strong brand is hard to beat, regardless of substance or lack thereof.
by Ish Theilheimer
Justin Trudeau's potential impact on federal politics is enormous, especially for the NDP. A Nanos poll released Monday morning showed the Conservatives in about the same place as they have been for six months — 33 percent — but the Liberals up nearly 10 points from before Trudeau announced his leadership candidacy.
This poll confirms the NDP's worst nightmare, that with Trudeau in the picture, the "thieving Grits" could again eclipse the NDP. At the same time, it suggests that Twodeaumania might have relatively small impact on Conservative support.
The Trudeau phenomenon is undoubtedly real, as spiking polls and packed speaking halls attest. Even at Straight Goods News, we've seen it. Trudeau videos draw massive numbers of "hits," far surpassing anything we've ever posted. Whatever you think of the man, there is real interest interest among a certain group of Canadians — who probably do not include hard-core Conservatives.
What are we to think of this beautiful young man with so little to say and the most powerful political brand in Canada? In the House, he hasn't been a standout, asking occasional questions about standard opposition issues such as service cuts and raising the retirement age.
As Leader, Trudeau would face the same problems that the Liberals have faced for the past decade or more.
The media spotlight has shone on him from time to time, but never for anything of substance. When your name is Trudeau, however, the spotlight is always nearby. But unlike his father Pierre's ascendancy , Justin's not attracting attention for big ideas, witty or well-chosen words, or for doing remarkable things.
Just as the Green candidates attract a certain percentage of the electorate just by being Green, Trudeau's name seems a magnet, at the moment, for many who yearn for a kinder and gentler Canada. A strong brand is hard to beat. The important question is whether Trudeau can build the brand once installed as leader.
Michael Ignatieff seemed a sure thing too. So did John Turner.
As Leader, Trudeau would face the same problems that the Liberals have faced for the past decade or more. They have become politically irrelevant.
The Right is occupied. Michael Ignatieff showed how far the Liberals can afford to slide right. There may more wiggle room on the Left.
Liberals have lost their edge in the industrial heartland, much of Atlantic Canada, and BC to the NDP, which now has strong incumbents who know their files, which might help them hold their seats against presumed Twodeaumania. But a fight between Liberals and NDP could also split the vote and hand hard-won seats over to Conservatives.
Both Trudeau and the NDP's Tom Mulcair are officially opposed to pre-election partisan coalition or merger talks.
Long ago, the Liberals lost their edge in rural Canada. It's hard to see how Trudeau can bring that back. Similarly, they don't have the pull they once did in immigrant communities, fewer of whom feel they owe their acceptance in Canada to Liberals than in the past and many of whom now lean NDP, or Conservative.
Quebec is a crucial question. Polls at the moment suggest Quebeckers might get over their bitterness toward Trudeau I and the Jean Chrétien debacle. These lingering resentments present a very large and appealing target for the NDP. Given some prompting, Quebeckers may well remember. Their licence plate all say they do.
As the chief potential victims of the Justin thing, Mulcair and the NDP need to be extremely thoughtful about building their own image.
As the chief potential victims of the Justin thing, Mulcair and the NDP need to be extremely thoughtful about building their own image. During his party's leadership campaign, Mulcair questioned the party's longstanding image and rhetoric. Since then, he's displayed a tone that is moderate, thoughtful, and focused on economic issues.
Whether the serious and credible tone Mulcair is working at achieving can compete is the real question. It is ironic that the NDP, which benefited so greatly from the star-like ascendance of Jack Layton within a half month during the last election campaign, now finds itself facing a potentially rising star. Mulcair and his party need to think very clearly about how you deal with the rock star effect and ask themselves some tough questions as they position themselves.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, will have a merry time of it if Trudeau becomes leader. They will use his name (instead of invoking the gun registry) as a major fundraising tool. They will use it to rally true believers to give and give again. And they'll relish the dogfight on the left for voters who yearn for a kinder and gentler Canada.
***
Since this article was written, Dalton McGuinty announced his plans to resign as
Ontario Premier. Written off as a lightweight when he won his party's leadership
in 1996, McGuinty went on to be elected Premier three times, although last year
he missed gaining his third majority – by one seat.
Last month he lost his attempt to convert his minority into a majority when the
Liberals lost the Kitchener-Waterloo byelection. McGuinty's strategy in that one
was to run against teachers and public sector workers, who he branded as greedy
for resisting a wage freeze and arbitrary indignities. The strategy, which
contradicted McGuinty's brand as a defender of public services and friend to
teachers and education, backfired badly.
That problem combined with some economy-size scandals to make life in the Legislature almost impossible of him. There was air ambulance privatization that cost
billions and may have cost many patients their lives. There was the politically-
motivated relocation of a planned gas generation plant Mississauga that might
have cost taxpayers three quarters of a billion dollars. So it was a good time to
call it a day as Premier – while mulling a run for Prime Minister.
In a news conference Monday night, McGuinty refused to rule out a federal
leadership run, and some news reports Tuesday morning said one is being
organized for him. How the former self-described "Education Premier," who
teachers now hate but who did manage to win three times and who has an
experienced campaign team, will do against rock star Trudeau is anyone's guess,
but, as Dalton McGuinty has proved repeatedly, he should not be written off. As
a potential defender of public services against Stephen Harper, he is has lost
some bragging rights as a result of drastic cuts this year to Ontario public
services and attacks on public workers. Inconsistencies have never bothered
McGuinty. He's a serial winner and Trudeau, if he's smart – which is yet to be
demonstrated – should be watching carefully.
About Ish Theilheimer
Ish Theilheimer is founder and president of Straight Goods News and has been Publisher of the leading, and oldest, independent Canadian online newsmagazine, StraightGoods.ca, since September 1999. He is also Managing Editor of PublicValues.ca. He lives wth his wife Kathy in Golden Lake, ON, in the Ottawa Valley.
eMail: ish@straightgoods.com
2 Responses to “Twodeaumania could hurt the NDP”
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
The Liberals will rise substantially if they swittch to the left and follow through with more action than talk. Justin needs to take strong stands that support working people and stick to it. Otherwise he may just be Justin Obama. All talk and no action.
Hi Ish. I was thinking the same thing. Even without Trudeau, the "Liberal" brand has deep and wide roots. The NDP is still just a "fluke" until it proves that it can retain its current level of loyalty. All that could change if people feel uncertain about Trudeau as election day approaches, as you point out happened with Turner and Ignatief. If the NDP outpaces the Libreals in a second election in a row, then the game is theirs to lose. But until then, betting money should nbe on the big brand.