Liberals on the ropes in BC, Ontario

Similarities between Clark, McGuinty come to fore.

by Ish Theilheimer

The winds of political changes are blowing in two of Canada's three biggest provinces, British Columbia and Ontario.

In BC, polls say the NDP is poised to gain power for the first time since 1996. The governing Liberals there appear unable to recover after public indignation over bringing in the HST drove Gordon Campbell from office two years ago.

This wasn't the only issue. Campbell was a ferocious privatization advocate. Current Premier Christy Clark, when she served in Campbell's cabinet, was personally close to many figures in Campbell's biggest scandal, which concerns the sell-off of BC Rail. Clark, who must call an election by next spring, also was Education Minister when the province changed teachers' contracts unilaterally (Bills 27 and 28), stripping them of key bargaining rights. The BC Supreme Court later declared her changes illegal.

Although Christy Clark has a fresher, more progressive appearance than her predecessor in the traditionally right-leaning BC provincial Liberal party, in her case, guilt by association is well merited. She came by it honestly, as the saying goes. It's not surprising she has consistently been low in the polls since being installed as leader last spring.

Meanwhile, in Ontario, change is also in the wind. Unable to ram through his own unilateral changes to teachers' contracts, Dalton McGuinty announced he is leaving as Premier, in a great big hurry. And he shut down the Legislature — and any possible investigation of his party's scandals — until the Liberals choose a successor in January.

McGuinty cites an impasse over teachers' contracts and public sector wages as reason for leaving. Most political observers, though, point to other things pushing the self-hyped "Education Premier" to get out while the getting is good. There was the public inquiry over a generating plant — part of a flubbed green energy policy — relocated at massive expense for sheer political expedience.  There were massive, and in some cases deadly, privatizations in health care and public services. This is a good time to get gone.

Ontario is bound to go to the polls next spring or sooner. The opposition, after all, will not support the new premier's Throne Speech or budget. With the Liberals trailing in the polls and having only a minority of seats, a new election seems imminent.

The new Liberal leader and incoming premier is likely to come from the Right side of the Liberal family. She or he will have to play by leadership rules that will make it almost impossible for a progressive to win because they have to raise so much money so quickly, including a $50,000 entry fee.  Few social action groups and food banks have quick access to that kind of money.

So the next provincial election in Canada's rust belt will feature a real Tim Hudak — who occasionally takes one foot out of his mouth long enough to say something coherent before putting the other one in — and a wanna-be Hudak running for the Liberals. Up against them will be NDP's Andrea Horwath, whose leadership ratings outstrip Hudak's or McGuinty's, whose party continues to rise in polls, and whose party won the September by-election by surprise in Kitchener-Waterloo, leading directly to McGuinty's exit.

In BC as well as Ontario, the battle to save public services from reckless sell-offs is front and centre. And in both provinces, the essential question looms in next spring's elections, as it has come to do in almost every election around the world at this time of economic chaos: "In whose interests are we governed, the giant corporations and the wealthy few or the hard-working many?"

In two weeks, Americans have to answer that question at the ballot box. We hope that despite the massive spending of Mitt Romney and the corporate Right that Americans get the answer right. Otherwise, we'll all end up at a Mad Hatter's tea party.

© Copyright 2012 Ish Theilheimer, All rights Reserved. Written For: StraightGoods.ca