Handicapping the Ontario Liberal leadership race

Inside Queen's Park profiles the known contenders, declared and undeclared.

from Inside Queen's Park  Vol 25, No 24&

Three kinds of candidates
Let's take the gang of sixteen probable candidates and divide them into three categories: those who have declared formally that they are really running; those who are not or probably not running; and watch this space.

Two candidates are really, really running:

Glen R Murray
First out of the gate last Sunday, the very talented former Winnipeg mayor offered a tongue-in-cheek claim to be the front-runner, drawing media mention of his famously egotistical manner. Reporters gave the former Training, Colleges and Universities Minister a fairly hard time over his "no-money down" tuition scheme, though it is usual for details of such campaign initiatives to be held in abeyance. Managing the Murray team is Jonathan Espie, the Premier’s Office staffer who also co-managed the LIBs’ third-ranked Kitchener-Waterloo by-election campaign.

Murray has pointed out that both he and Kathleen Wynne are out gay politicians, which will make for fierce competition in that community.  They will also tussle hard over 416 [city of Toronto] backing in general.  Murray’s kick-off was at Ryerson’s beautifully made-over athletic centre in Make Believe Gardens, which had been the drab locale for the 1996 LIB leadership convention at which Dalton McGuinty was chosen the fifth-ballot victor shortly after 4:30 a.m. Attending Murray’s launch (though not extending support for his or anyone else’s candidacy) was George Smitherman, who had been his predecessor as Toronto Centre MPP.  The presence at the launch of RIM mogul Jim Balsillie also created some welcome buzz.

Kathleen O Wynne
The Municipal Affairs minister is second into the contest to which she brings skill, toughness and integrity. She has evidently decided to be critical of Team McGuinty. The renewal card is far easier to pick up than to play safely, and any number of missteps can bring the renewal faction into difficulty. But Wynne is not a timid politician.

She has prepared carefully for the leadership, attracting key operatives — such as the party’s superlative campaign organizer Tom Allison (who was Chief of Staff to TC and U minister Glen Murray until the middle of last month) and highly regarded delegate wrangler Milton Chan. She has also attracted key volunteer activists: Lorna Marsden, former York U president, Senate Member and fundraiser, past OLP nominations supremo Kim Donaldson and event organizer Pam Gutteridge.

Wynne also appears to have been far and away the most active and successful candidate in the crucial task of securing backing from LIB MPPs, with the campaign’s claimed list of announced and not-yet-revealed backers comprising about a quarter of the caucus. Her backers include AG John Gerretsen, former minister Monique Smith and the diligent David Zimmer. MPPs are important because they can exert leadership in the delegate-selection process as well as doing the heavy-lifting in recruiting new members. That fundamental tool of leadership politics is operative for less than two weeks, the deadline to be eligible to vote being November 23.

Seven likely candidates are not running

Chris Bentley
The Energy minister has endured a brutal experience fronting for the gas-plant seat-saver scandal. It was not the tiniest bit surprising that the London lawyer was not willing to carry that can through the race. Thus endeth the most widely expected leadership race.

Laurel Broten
The Education minister was at the centre of the legislative wrangle with the teachers’ federations — which gave her credentials likely to be cherished by right-wing Liberal delegates. But Broten’s prompt decision that she would not run likely reflected the recognition of how much smaller and weaker was Liberal caucus support for the wage freeze course than for the proposition to seek somehow to renew it.

Brad Duguid
Like other middle-rank ministers, the Economic Development and Innovation minister had to decide if entering the race gets him onto the front-bench. He had already worked his way up to a substantial ministerial rank and would likely cover more ground by trading his own support than by bidding to attract backing from others.

Dwight Duncan
The Finance minister was also fairly quick to decide that he won’t run and will instead back his 1996 supporter and fellow Windsorite Sandra Pupatello.

Deb Matthews
The Health minister cut her teeth provincially as OLP president and has fought very strong stakeholders while dragging costly baggage not much of her making. Long talked of as a leadership contender, Matthews has puzzled some observers – and frustrated many supporters – by failing to declare already. Give her credit for being concerned over good public policy, but take off marks for lacking personal ambition. Will she decide to scratch before the gate is open? [Editor’s note: The foregoing is what we wrote this morning at the very time Matthews told a health-care audience that she will not run.]

Yasir Naqvi
The recently acclaimed Ontario Liberal Party prez had been well placed to make a future-considerations run as a fresh new face but decided that he had to recuse himself to avoid any appearance of unfairness. And he very quickly decided that he had better also scratch his planned entry into the leadership race. But he will have plenty of profile as the ranking OLP officer.

George Smitherman
The aggressive and determined former Health minister had been made deputy premier to keep him from running federally. His heavyweight credentials were boosted when he got the Energy portfolio to push through the "Green Energy" file to which Infrastructure was added. But Smitherman defected anyway, to seek the Toronto mayoralty — and lost badly to Rob Ford. Some of his cabinet and caucus colleagues were glad to see him go and a few particular critics said so bluntly. Smitherman had seriously canvassed returning to the pink palace when McGuinty stepped out, but he indicated at the end of October that family obligations to his husband and two small children come first.

Michael Bryant
It is not fair, but the notoriety arising from the August 2009 attack by troubled bike courier Darcy Sheppard seems to block his return to politics. A Bryant candidacy was widely discounted and now one hears nothing.

David Caplan
Still steamed over his firing as Health minister, Caplan was busy seeking support but does not appear to have drawn enough backing to sustain a run.

Dr Eric Hoskins
This bright man came into provincial politics with a big activist following, and was widely celebrated as winner of the St. Paul’s by-election occasioned by Michael Bryant’s departure from Queen’s Park. He very quickly went into the McGuinty cabinet and he is keenly focussed on a leadership run. But Liberal activists report that Hoskins is doing little to sign up supporters, seeming to suppose that his celebrity will allow him to poach delegates from other camps. (Good luck with that, Dr Hoskins.)

Gerard Kennedy
The former Education minister came to grief federally and now would have to face a very tough NDP incumbent on what once was his own turf. He argues that he departed before the gloss went off the McGuinty government. No baggage, perhaps, but lots of attitude — for which many in the pink palace caucus tend to dislike him. Kennedy came first, with 22 percent, in the late January Forum Research poll on vote intentions in the next election (compared to five other possible leaders. But Kennedy’s team of yore is mostly in the Trudeau federal campaign, so he’ll be hard pressed to put together a team that fits. Might he bow out or be an early scratch?

Sandra Pupatello
(announced, November 7) The lively and energetic Pupatello was often the key to McGuinty’s ministerial shuffles but carried no baggage when she left for Bay Street. Her centre-right campaign will be managed by the very able Christine Bomé. And CBC tells that it will be launched tomorrow, Nov. 8. In addition to heavyweight backer Dwight Duncan, look for her to draw Italian support — from Bob Chiarelli, for example — and to benefit down the line from the south Asians signed up by Harinder Takhar.

Charles Sousa
Able and amiable as well as altogether presentable, Sousa is the classic junior minister seeking to bolster his leadership prospects in the next leadership race. But in the event of a deadlock he just might make it all the way. Managing his campaign is Bob Richardson, who deftly guided Lyn McLeod into the leadership following the departure of David Peterson. Campaign kicks off on Saturday.

John Wilkinson
Wilkinson did a superlative job of selling the HST, but it is surely very risky to remind voters of any unpopular tax increase. The lack of a seat is a problem. But members of the McGuinty inner circle are looking past that to Wilkinson’s political skill and personal appeal.

And they're all in their Fifties
 
Given that our announced or likely leadership contenders got into the politics racket from 1995 through 2010, it’s striking that they are all in their 50s:  Pupatello, 50; Hoskins, 52; Kennedy, 52; Wilkinson, 53; Sousa, 54; Murray, 55; Wynne, 59; and Mathews, 59. And it’s interesting that the most ‘senior’ expected candidate –Sandra Pupatello, first elected as an MPP in 1995 — is the youngest, at 50.

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