Race could be more exciting than pundits had predicted.
by Dave Cournoyer
A new survey conducted by Forum Research shows a three-way race in the Calgary-Centre by-election between Conservative Joan Crockatt, Liberal Harvey Locke, and Green Chris Turner.
As reported by the Globe & Mail, the November survey of 376 randomly selected residents in Calgary-Centre showed Crockatt with 32 percent, to 30 percent for Locke and 23 percent for Turner. New Democrat Dan Meades was in fourth place with 12 percent.
The survey is considered to be accurate by plus or minus five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
If this new survey is to be believed, then the November 26 vote could be much more exciting than most political watchers, including myself, had previously predicted.
Lee Richardson's 2011 federal election margin of 40 percent and the September survey's 23 percent margin for the Conservatives may have completely evaporated.
A similar survey conducted by Forum Research in October found Crockatt with 48 percent to 28 percent for Locke, 11 percent for Turner, and 8 percent for Meades. Another survey from Forum Research conducted in August found the Conservatives with 44 percent to 21 percent for the Liberals, 14 percent for the NDP, and 12 percent for the Greens.
It appears that within a matter of months, the 40 percent margin of victory earned by former Conservative MP Lee Richardson in the 2011 federal election and 23 percent margin for the Conservatives found in the September survey may have completely evaporated.
It is always important to approach surveys, like this interactive voice response (IVR) survey, with a healthy dose of skepticism. Survey results are a snapshot of the opinions of a surveyed group of individuals at a given moment in time. This said, surveys like this one can be an important indicator of trends.
A close race could increase the importance of the CalgaryCentre campaign if progressive voters see an opportunity to coalesce behind one of the main opposition candidates. Although 1CalgaryCentre was initially ignored and ridiculed by the campaigns, it has played a central role in the debate around vote-splitting in the riding. On November 22, the group will hold its “selection vote” which allows voters in Calgary-Centre to register and select their choice from the progressive candidates running in the by-election.
On November 22, 1CalgaryCentre will hold its “selection vote” to see if Calgary Centre voters can agree on a single progressive candidate.
As this contest enters its final two weeks, Joan Crockatt’s two main opponents have taken aim at their mutual opponent and each other.
Crockatt’s tacit support of the Wildrose Party in the spring provincial election appears to have driven a number of moderate Tories away from her campaign in the downtown Calgary riding. Her campaign manager, William McBeath, is the Wildrose Party’s Political Operations and Communications Director.
Turner’s campaign has criticized Locke for not living in the riding (he lives in Banff) and Locke’s campaign has accused Turner of splitting the anti-conservative vote in the riding. All campaigns have made use of social media. Locke’s campaign recently launched a Tumblr for Calgarians to show their support for his campaign.
While Crockatt’s and Locke’s campaigns have mainly focused on the tried and true strategy of doorknocking, Turner has incorporated some tactical and guerrilla style techniques into his campaign, which has helped create an air of excitement around the Green Party candidate (Turner has been seen delivering flash speeches on Calgary transit buses and holding numerous intimate coffee and wine and cheese parties).
Meanwhile, all parties' candidates have benefited from high-profile visits. Immigration Minister Jason Kenney met with groups of seniors in the riding with Crockatt on November 13. Conservative MPs Michelle Rempel and Blake Richards joined Crockatt on the campaign trail last week.
All parties’ candidates have benefited from high-profile visits.
Outgoing Liberal leader Bob Rae campaigned with Locke the same day day and leadership candidate Justin Trudeau is making a second appearance in Calgary-Centre on November 19. Former Ontario MP Martha Hall Findlay is expected to use Calgary as her launch pad into the Liberal leadership campaign.
Turner has benefited from the support of key organizers from Mayor Naheed Nenshi‘s 2010 election campaign. On November 17, Green Party leader Elizabeth May and famous environmentalist David Suzuki will be attending a “Turning Point” rally at Scarboro United Church in support of Turner’s candidacy. Turner was even pictured in a photo online with Calgary-Glenmore PC MLA Linda Johnson, whose daughter is volunteering with the Green Party campaign.
Meanwhile, NDP leader Thomas Mulcair made an appearance at a packed rally tonight to support Meades campaign in Calgary-Centre. Meades, the director of Vibrant Communities Calgary, was also joined on the campaign trail by Edmonton-Calder MLA David Eggen last week.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.