Judging Justin Trudeau’s chances

Liberal leadership candidates straggle to starting line.

by Geoffrey Stevens

Is Justin Trudeau the real deal?

That’s a question many Liberals are asking as the contestants in the race for the top in the party — without a permanent leader since the debacle of the 2011 election — straggle to the starting line for the race that will end in Ottawa on April 14.

Trudeau declared on October 2. Constitutional lawyer Deborah Coyne, his father’s last paramour, had already announced her candidacy. Martha Hall Findlay, a former Toronto MP, who had just finished paying off her debts from six years ago (when she ran unsuccessfully to succeed Paul Martin), joined the new race two weeks ago.

Joyce Murray, a Vancouver MP and former provincial cabinet minister in British Columbia, is poised to enter today, while Marc Garneau, the former astronaut and MP from Montreal since 2008, plans to declare on Wednesday.

The entry deadline is January 13, and there are bound to be others willing to post the $75,000 fee. If you have enough money, it’s a cheap thrill to tell the grandkids you once ran for leader of a national party.

There are really two races. Justin Trudeau, Marc Garneau and Martha Hall Findlay are running for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. The others will be running for publicity, ego or future considerations.

More realistically, Trudeau is running for the leadership of the party. Garneau and Hall Findlay are running for second place in the hope of picking up the pieces if Justin stumbles — or is devoured by savage Albertans who still regard his late father Pierre as the Eastern Devil who came to steal their oil.

But back to the question. Is Justin the real deal? University students and others in the cohort of young voters certainly think so. Thomas Mulcair isn’t bad, but Justin is the only federal political figure who can ignite student audiences. Their parents are not so sure. They — the moms especially — remember getting swept up in the Trudeaumania in the late 1960s, and they also remember the letdown they experienced when it was over.

Quebec is not yet convinced that Trudeau redux is the way to go. Ontario would sort of like to be seduced (again), but is in a risk-adverse mood these days. Older voters in the West would cheer for the Toronto Maple Leafs before they would vote for a Trudeau (“a bigoted closet separatist,” as one reader described Justin to Sun Media).

And yet — there is a glimmer of hope in the polls. Nanos Research reported a 5.5-point “bounce” in Liberal popular support after Justin entered the race in October. That moved the Liberals into second place, a bit ahead of the NDP and not far behind the leading Conservatives, who have lost significant ground since the 2011 election.

In the past, as public opinion analyst Eric Grenier notes, the Liberals did not get a bounce like that when their last two leaders, Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, declared their candidacies. Nor did it happen for the NDP when Mulcair announced his leadership candidacy following the death of Jack Layton.

With the next federal election not due for nearly three years, it would be foolish to draw any conclusions from current polls. It is interesting, however, that the October bounce was still there in Nanos’ November polling; the Liberals’ remained in second place, within hailing distance of the Conservatives.

Although Liberals and others don’t know yet whether Justin is the real deal, they do know he is not his father. He is a kinder, warmer person, in some ways more like his mother Margaret than his father. He is still light on policy, but what leadership candidate isn’t?

Ironically, the Trudeau name, which may well win him the leadership when Liberals vote in April, could be a millstone when the whole electorate gets to pass judgment at election time. He would have to win despite his parentage, not because of it. It’s not so easy being a Trudeau.

© Copyright 2012 Geoffrey Stevens, All rights Reserved. Written For: StraightGoods.ca