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Inside Queen's Park

This article was first published in Inside Queen's Park, which is published twenty-two times per year by GP Murray Research Limited. IQP offers widely respected analysis of, and insight into, the inner workings of Ontario government and politics. Its contents are copyright and reproduction, in whole or in part by any means without permission of the editor, is strictly forbidden.

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After the Ontario budget

Jun 132013

Canadian politics

Liberals' hugs, handshakes halt at NDP side; by-elections loom.

from Inside Queen's Park Vol 26, No12

Premier Kathleen Wynne and Finance minister Charles Sousa celebrated the passage of Budget 2013 with gleeful hugs. When, however, they crossed the floor to acknowledge the crucial backing extended by Andrea Horwath’s NDP in return for auto insurance premium cuts and other budgetary concessions, the exuberant moment on the Speaker’s right hand quickly melted away into decidedly un-exuberant hand-shakes on his left-hand side.

Ontario passes Wynne-Horwath budget

Jun 032013

Canadian politics

Minority government now business as usual at Queen's Park.

from Inside Queen's ParkVolume 26, Number 11

The NDP delivered last week on its promise to back a revised Budget 2013 “that will make people’s lives better and government more accountable”. Forty-eight Liberals and 17 NDPers voted in favour, for a total of 65 "Ayes". The Progressive Conservatives turned out en masse to cast 36 "Nays." [48 + 17 + 36 = 101.]

Ontario braces for budget, election

May 022013

Canadian politics

Numbers game dominates Ontario politics, with budget and polling results.

from Inside Queen's Park Vol 26 No 9

Liberal-NDP bargaining erodes budget secrecy
Ontario’s feeble conventions governing budgetary secrecy have gone the way of the Norwegian Blue parrot in the Monty Python sketch. The notion that the key components of the provincial budget should not be divulged to the public until the Finance minister rises to deliver his budget speech is now completely inoperative, thanks in large measure to how much of the fiscal framework of Budget 2013 has already been revealed in the course of the horse-trading between Premier Kathleen Wynne and NDP leader Andrea Horwath over survival of the LIBs’ minority government.

The two women party leaders have discussed the action required to reduce auto insurance, between themselves and in media scrums. These interactions have been termed “conversations” by Wynne but of late Horwath has been markedly less cordial about their exchanges. And other particulars which the NDP has advanced — in what we are inclined to call budget bargaining — include speedier delivery of home care and funding of youth employment schemes. These two areas will clearly be included in the Budget. Action on the "revenue stream" to sustain transit investments is another measure the premier seems keen to advance in the Budget without waiting upon the Metrolinx timetable. Horwath’s response to this has been quite grumpy.

Polling numbers put party preferences too close too call
Relatively few polls were published on Ontario provincial politics early in calendar 2013. (This reflected the inroads of the Ontario and federal LIB leadership races and Thomas Mulcair’s efforts to establish his party as the opposition in the HoC.) But there has been more polling action as the government could fall on the Budget confidence vote.
The following table adds two more polls to the three summarized in IQP on March 6:

Innovative Research
LIB 24
NDP 20
PC 23

Vector Poll
LIB 25
NDP 32
PC 36

Forum Research
LIB 32
NDP 29
PC 32

EKOS
LIB 31
NDP 25
PC 32

Ipsos-Reid
LIB 28
NDP 29
PC 37

Average party percentage
LIB 28
NDP 27
PC 32

The table shows that the three parties represented at Queen’s Park remain very close – which is a very strong argument, in this department’s opinion, for cautioning against the rush to the hustings which is heard from people impressed by the NDP dropping to 25 percent, the Liberals getting over 30 precent or the PCs drawing ahead by eight points – take your pick. Another way to assess polls is to consider the range of party support. On average, the range is modest, from the NDP at 27 percent through the Liberals at 28 percent to the PCs at 32 percent.

Public service salaries and Peter Kormos

Apr 042013

Canadian politics

Ontario's staff salaries expand; Peter Kormos was a figure of consequence in the Legislature.

from Inside Queen's Park Volume 26, Number 07

IQP has been pointing out for several years that the public sector salary disclosure scheme is most illuminating when analysis focuses on the changing compensation patterns of the nine different sectors within the reporting regime formula — rather than picking and choosing among the bulging individual pay-packets received by CEOs and other key managers as well as by the cops, jail guards and other public sector workers who sign up to work as much overtime as they possibly can get.

Ontario parties neck and neck in the polls

Mar 072013

Canadian politics

Ministry changeovers fraught with potential missteps.

from Inside Queen's Park Volume 26, Number 5

It was a refreshing change when Andrea Horwath switched from her ultra-earnest generic message about the imperative of making minority government work to her scowling and very specific demand that the government chop auto insurance premiums or suffer the electoral consequences, soonest. The earlier line had begun to be more than a little tedious, yet an election is a high price to pay for a change of pace, IQP supposes.

Such calculations should rest on evidence of electoral support, and there is not a lot of light between the three parties. Consider just the three most recently published polls cited in this newsletter:

**Innovative Research**
LIB	24
NDP	20
PC	23

**Vector Poll**
LIB	25
NDP	20
PC	36

**Forum Research**
LIB	27
NDP	27
PC	31

**Average party percent**
LIB	27
NDP	27
PC	27

The closeness of the three packages and of the averages derived from them suggests that all three parties and their leaders would be at risk if they provoked an election.

The parties’ CFOs have to worry over how much of the money they borrowed to fight the 2011 election is yet to be repaid, as well as what they must do to satisfy their bankers respecting the re-payment obligations which will be accelerated to fight the 2015 contest a year or two early.

There’s no substitute for cash already raised when you are talking to the bank, so the NDP pulled off a coup with its lavish Art Gallery of Ontario “flag-ship social event” on February 28. Although the event raised eyebrows over its $2,500 ticket price, the rumoured take of $700,000 makes it clear that the price-point was correctly set.

Wynne causes confusion by shuffling ministry responsibilities
Embarrassing as it may be, it’s not unknown for the name of a ministry to be mangled when the swearing in of a shuffled cabinet involves moving this branch there and that other component somewhere else. (Premier Dalton McGuinty was especially given to taking a couple of small ministries apart and putting them back together – in what IQP described as ‘shufflets’.) But it is of course much more embarrassing when the muddle directly involves the premier.

The latest such snafu happened when Agriculture, Food & Rural Affairs was broken up in the February 11 swearing in of Premier Wynne’s cabinet. She retained the agriculture part, the better to woo Ontario outside the cities, and gave the Rural Affairs component to Jeff Leal, to give him a secretariat to help his boss — but there was no provision made for food.

That omission, which of course did nothing to lend credibility to Wynne’s grass-roots plan to gruntle vexed constituents on the back forty, was rectified 72 hours later by having her repeat the oath for a ministry called A&F. The government attempted to do this on little cat feet but the clumsy error had by then been noised about by Ernie Hardeman, PC agriculture critic. This wasn’t in the same league as unearthing a third embarrassing tranche of gas-plant closure documents and spreading doubt about what else had yet to be found by searching the government’s massive file servers. But it damaged the new regime’s credibility.

Media coverage unfairly termed this a mistake on Wynne’s part. Yes, the newly minted premier read out the oath formally stating her portfolio responsibilities, but the job of getting the wording right for the swearing-in script surely fell to Cabinet Secretary Peter Wallace.

John Gerretsen had found himself in a similar pickle when he was only partially sworn in October 2003 as McGuinty’s Minister of Municipal Affairs, without any mention of Housing. In that case, the embarrassment of not highlighting a key component of the ministry which was a major Liberal strategy, was not expunged until March 2004. The new government had initially brushed off the mistake. Statutory reporting requirements will eventually catch up with anyone playing fast and loose with ministerial names.

Mowing traditional grass
As noted in past issues, Premier Wynne began her leadership address in Maple Leaf Gardens and her Throne Speech at Queen’s Park by reminding her listeners that they were on turf that is considered to be the “traditional lands” of the Mississaugas of the New Credit. That same message was right up at the top of the remarks Wynne delivered at the opening of the huge 2013 convention of the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada. The impact of this gargantuan convention has to be seen to be believed. PDAC reported today that the 2013 convention attendance has exceeded 30,000 for the second year running.

Premier Kathleen Wynne’s plentiful priorities

Feb 212013

Canadian politics

Cabinet choices, chosen issues, indicate Premier's To Do list.

from Inside Queen's Park Volume 26, Number 4
Ontario’s new government is headed by a politician who is not afraid to declare key objectives, both substantive and in regard to process. Kathleen Wynne, the Premier-elect, wasted no time in declaring the importance of acting to advance both social justice and jobs and the economy before she left the Make Believe Gardens stage on which her convention victory was celebrated.

The premier has also sounded the klaxon on the state of Ontario’s agriculture, having kept her campaign promise to assume that portfolio – or the best part of it, at any rate. Hiving off the Rural Affairs component (to the steady Jeff Leal) will help some, but there is no guarantee that Queen’s Park can afford the political and financial cost of squaring the horse-racing industry, calming the uproar over wind-turbines and dissipating the bolshy attitudes in rural and remote territories.

Wynne’s team contains ten newbies, MPPs not previously invited to sit the Cabinet table, 8 women ministers (30 percent) and 19 men (70 percent).

Far more difficult, Wynne has to reach a workable détente with the teachers – for which she has tapped a trusted school board leader (Liz Sandals). This is in addition to allocating trusted or promising colleagues to address our jobs and employment needs (Eric Hoskins), and the deficit and spending challenges in infrastructure and transportation (Glen Murray). Then there are Toronto's demands for action to address grid-lock, added to the province-wide transit dossier. And the burdensome issues in the crowded field of energy have been given to a veteran (Bob Chiarelli).

Further cost-saving action on health care is imperative and the ministerial portfolio is now wielded by a reliable Deputy Premier (Deb Matthews). She can be expected to oversee the poverty implementation plan developed by Frances Lankin and Munir Sheikh. The premier has already inscribed this last priority on the agenda for the responsible ministers and key bureaucrats. And that reflects, IQP has learned, the consensus-making technique Wynne’s government will adopt to compile the traditional "mandate letter". These will now be negotiated in sessions involving the Minister, Deputy Minister – and the Premier — rather than being handed down as marching orders to the Minister from the OPO, as before.

Another of Wynne’s highly significant priorities is aboriginal affairs, the stand-alone ministerial portfolio having been bestowed on another key Wynne campaign backer, David Zimmer. He was Personal Assistant (PA) to the Attorney-General from the 2003 beginning to the 2011 end of the McGuinty government, and was also PA at Aboriginal Affairs from November 2011 through February 2013. Zimmer does not need to be instructed on how important this field is to the new premier, having been PA to Wynne as Aboriginal Affairs minister from October 2011 to November 2012.

The new premier often strongly pressed Team McGuinty to do more than pay lip service to aboriginal rights. She was the only leadership contender who reminded convention delegates that they were meeting on lands of the Mississaugas of the New Credit First Nation. (This went into her Throne Speech, as well.) She understands the potential of aboriginal land claims and other disputes to create strife and foment violence. Road and rail blockages in the name of Idle No More have drawn heavy media interest but their economic impact is perhaps less disruptive than the measures taken more remotely against development of the “Ring of Fire” in which so much northern development depends.

A strong factor which will ensure the Premier’s continuing engagement with aboriginal affairs is her family connection with that community. One of her daughters is married to a man from the Moose Cree First Nation in Moose Factory, giving Wynne aboriginal grandchildren.

Cabinet composition
Read alphabetically, the Wynne Cabinet lists four veteran ministers/non-supporters (Bradley, Broten, Chan, Chiarelli) before a newbie/supporter (Coteau) gets a look in. Then another veteran/non-supporter (Duguid), a veteran/supporter (Gerretsen) a veteran non/supporter (Gravelle) and a rival then supporter (Hoskins), a veteran/supporter (Jeffrey), a veteran/non-supporter (Leal) and a newbie/rival’s backer (MacCharles). Next comes a veteran/strong backer who was promoted to be deputy premier (Matthews), a veteran/supporter (McMeekin), a pair of veteran/non-supporters (Meilleur, Milloy), a newbie/supporter (Moridi), and a recent minister/rival/backer (Murray). Next are a newbie/neutral (Naqvi), a veteran backbencher/non-supporter (Orazietti), a newbie/non-supporter (Piruzza), and a pair of veteran/ backbenchers/supporters (Sandals and Sergio). Finishing up is a recent minister/rival/then backer (Sousa), a veteran/rival/then non-backer (Takhar), a very supportive veteran minister (Wynne herself) and finally a veteran backbencher/newbie and very strong supporter (Zimmer).

So of the 27 cabinet ministers, IQP classifies 14 of them as supporters and 12 as non-supporters. With that margin (which Wynne’s backers may have been tempted to think of as a minor majority), it helps that Yasir Naqvi has not maintained any vestige of his leadership convention neutrality as party president – and is (to judge from the zealous answer to his first question in the opening day of the Legislature) a strong Wynne booster.

Indeed, boosting the leader vigourously is what all Liberal MPPs can be expected to do, whomever they backed in the leadership contest and whether they showed up for the February 11 swearing in or not. In that respect, we can anticipate that Wynne’s government will not need reminding that minorities do not last unless they can work effectively with the opposition. And it’s already clear from the NDP response to yesterday’s Throne Speech that Wynne has cleared her first hurdle.

Wynne’s team contains ten newbies, MPPs not previously invited to sit the Cabinet table, and of this category, only three had first been elected in the most recent, 2011 Ontario provincial election. The new LIB cabinet contains 8 women ministers (30 percent) and 19 men (70 percent).

The Legislature opened again today but Premier Wynne was unhappy that the Progressive Conservative s spurned her offered Select Committee yet still called unhappily for – yes, a Select Committee. Mr Speaker Levac also called unhappily for Members to stop cat-calling and told them to expect a crack-down. He also said pointedly that he does not need to be told how to do his job. IQP thinks we’d better brace for some robust conversation.

Guide to new Ontario Premier’s likely cabinet picks

Jan 292013

Canadian politics

Wynne will repay debts, break up old boys' club.

by Inside Queen's Park

With Kathleen Wynne's pledge to un-shutter the pink palace [re-open Queen’s Park] within barely three weeks, the Ontario provincial government's transition from the one headed by Premier Dalton McGuinty to that being reconstituted by Premier-elect Kathleen Wynne, has necessarily begun in haste. Picking a cabinet team and swearing them in is of course a key element in establishing the Wynne government.

Key questions in Ontario Liberal leadership race

Jan 242013

Canadian politics

One candidate is already elected, the other needs a by-election. Each riding has two delegates.

from Inside Queen's Park, Volume 26, Number 2

The ballot question was evidently at the top of Kathleen Wynne’s mind in addressing supporters at a $500 fundraising reception January 23. Wynne presents herself as poised to re-open the Legislature right after the leadership convention, staunching the self-inflicted wound of prorogation and seeking an accommodation with one opposition party in order for the Liberals to continue in power. Sandra Pupatello’s preferred pitch is to appeal to combative Liberals by promising to stiff-arm the other parties while she wins a by-election.

As this department sees it, the close race between the front-runners will be decided by how many delegates and ex-officios, and which of the other four contenders, embrace which ballot question.

Ontario Liberals restrict spending on leadership race

Nov 212012

Canadian politics

And: WTO undermines Ontario-first buying in Green Energy plan.

from Inside Queen's Park, Vol 25, No 25

Money: the mother's milk of politics

The Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) has set a ceiling of $500K for leadership contributions and further requires each candidate to remit to the party 25 percent of the total donated to their campaigns. So if campaign donations reach the allowable ceiling of $3.0M, $750K would be clawed back by the party, leaving $2.25M for the campaigns. And in addition, the OLP will collect an entry fee of $50K from each candidate. Whatever their detractors say about the party’s "tax-and-spend" orientation when it comes to the provincial budget, the OLP does not shrink from taxing its own party leadership candidates.

IQP thought it worth comparing the current half-million dollar donation limit to that applied in the previous Ontario LIB leadership contest, in 1996. Sadly, our inquiries of the party and calls to sundry Liberal officers and activists yielded a welter of incompatible responses — $250K; $350K; no limit. (As one source noted, it is especially difficult to extract information from records sloshing around on the beginning edge of the Internet.)

Having to take our pick, we note that the income and expense filings with Elections Ontario for the 1996 Liberal leadership show donations for four of the six listed were clustered around $250K, only one of which exceeded that sum.

Leadership contests held when a party is in opposition attract smaller crowds at lower prices. The Liberals cashed in very profitably after the 2003 formation of the McGuinty government but they have fretted unhappily of late at the disinclination of stakeholders and consultants to cut cheques as generously as they had done before the October 2011 slump into minority territory.

(There was certainly not much sign of donor fatigue at the recent Celebration Dinner 2012: A Tribute to Greg Sorbara. The consultant crowd and stakeholders were a bit less present than in major fundraising events, but several hundred Liberal stalwarts plus some of the rest of us forked over $750 a seat.)

We don’t yet know how much will be donated in the 2012-13 contest or whether it will cover campaign spending. Elections Ontario postings of contributions to and expenditures by the six candidates who contested the 1996 race were uniformly though not hugely in the red. Donations totalled $1.1M and aggregate expenses were $1.3M. (There were actually seven candidates but party activist Greg Kells did not file the required financial return.)

Dwight Duncan, or perhaps his CFO, deserves special mention for keeping his 1996 expenses of $249K
within $700 of his campaign contributions of $248K. Splendid credentials for a Finance minister.

WTO strikes down Ontario-first renewable energy buying program.

The World Trade Organization decision striking down the preferences for Ontario producers of solar panels and wind turbines that are central to Ontario’s Green Economy industrial strategy comes at an awkward time for the McGuinty government for two reasons. (And it‘s a pain to try to get information from the WTO, which doesn’t use sensible disclosure protocols.)

First, the decision further undercuts the financial basis for the production of renewable energy, in pursuit of which wind farms sprouted all over south western Ontario, reminding voters that they had been imposed over local objections. And what’s left of the government’s connected programs to create industrial employment, produce affordable electricity and clean the air? And second, it appears that in both crucial arenas the McGuinty strategy of abandoning negotiated compensation in favour of legislative imposition is going down to judicial or — if you prefer — quasi-judicial defeat.

Handicapping the Ontario Liberal leadership race

Nov 082012

Canadian politics

Inside Queen's Park profiles the known contenders, declared and undeclared.

from Inside Queen's Park Vol 25, No 24&

Three kinds of candidates
Let's take the gang of sixteen probable candidates and divide them into three categories: those who have declared formally that they are really running; those who are not or probably not running; and watch this space.

Two candidates are really, really running:

Glen R Murray
First out of the gate last Sunday, the very talented former Winnipeg mayor offered a tongue-in-cheek claim to be the front-runner, drawing media mention of his famously egotistical manner. Reporters gave the former Training, Colleges and Universities Minister a fairly hard time over his "no-money down" tuition scheme, though it is usual for details of such campaign initiatives to be held in abeyance. Managing the Murray team is Jonathan Espie, the Premier’s Office staffer who also co-managed the LIBs’ third-ranked Kitchener-Waterloo by-election campaign.

Murray has pointed out that both he and Kathleen Wynne are out gay politicians, which will make for fierce competition in that community. They will also tussle hard over 416 [city of Toronto] backing in general. Murray’s kick-off was at Ryerson’s beautifully made-over athletic centre in Make Believe Gardens, which had been the drab locale for the 1996 LIB leadership convention at which Dalton McGuinty was chosen the fifth-ballot victor shortly after 4:30 a.m. Attending Murray’s launch (though not extending support for his or anyone else’s candidacy) was George Smitherman, who had been his predecessor as Toronto Centre MPP. The presence at the launch of RIM mogul Jim Balsillie also created some welcome buzz.

Kathleen O Wynne
The Municipal Affairs minister is second into the contest to which she brings skill, toughness and integrity. She has evidently decided to be critical of Team McGuinty. The renewal card is far easier to pick up than to play safely, and any number of missteps can bring the renewal faction into difficulty. But Wynne is not a timid politician.

She has prepared carefully for the leadership, attracting key operatives — such as the party’s superlative campaign organizer Tom Allison (who was Chief of Staff to TC and U minister Glen Murray until the middle of last month) and highly regarded delegate wrangler Milton Chan. She has also attracted key volunteer activists: Lorna Marsden, former York U president, Senate Member and fundraiser, past OLP nominations supremo Kim Donaldson and event organizer Pam Gutteridge.

Wynne also appears to have been far and away the most active and successful candidate in the crucial task of securing backing from LIB MPPs, with the campaign’s claimed list of announced and not-yet-revealed backers comprising about a quarter of the caucus. Her backers include AG John Gerretsen, former minister Monique Smith and the diligent David Zimmer. MPPs are important because they can exert leadership in the delegate-selection process as well as doing the heavy-lifting in recruiting new members. That fundamental tool of leadership politics is operative for less than two weeks, the deadline to be eligible to vote being November 23.

Seven likely candidates are not running

Chris Bentley
The Energy minister has endured a brutal experience fronting for the gas-plant seat-saver scandal. It was not the tiniest bit surprising that the London lawyer was not willing to carry that can through the race. Thus endeth the most widely expected leadership race.

Laurel Broten
The Education minister was at the centre of the legislative wrangle with the teachers’ federations — which gave her credentials likely to be cherished by right-wing Liberal delegates. But Broten’s prompt decision that she would not run likely reflected the recognition of how much smaller and weaker was Liberal caucus support for the wage freeze course than for the proposition to seek somehow to renew it.

Brad Duguid
Like other middle-rank ministers, the Economic Development and Innovation minister had to decide if entering the race gets him onto the front-bench. He had already worked his way up to a substantial ministerial rank and would likely cover more ground by trading his own support than by bidding to attract backing from others.

Dwight Duncan
The Finance minister was also fairly quick to decide that he won’t run and will instead back his 1996 supporter and fellow Windsorite Sandra Pupatello.

Deb Matthews
The Health minister cut her teeth provincially as OLP president and has fought very strong stakeholders while dragging costly baggage not much of her making. Long talked of as a leadership contender, Matthews has puzzled some observers – and frustrated many supporters – by failing to declare already. Give her credit for being concerned over good public policy, but take off marks for lacking personal ambition. Will she decide to scratch before the gate is open? [Editor’s note: The foregoing is what we wrote this morning at the very time Matthews told a health-care audience that she will not run.]

Yasir Naqvi
The recently acclaimed Ontario Liberal Party prez had been well placed to make a future-considerations run as a fresh new face but decided that he had to recuse himself to avoid any appearance of unfairness. And he very quickly decided that he had better also scratch his planned entry into the leadership race. But he will have plenty of profile as the ranking OLP officer.

George Smitherman
The aggressive and determined former Health minister had been made deputy premier to keep him from running federally. His heavyweight credentials were boosted when he got the Energy portfolio to push through the "Green Energy" file to which Infrastructure was added. But Smitherman defected anyway, to seek the Toronto mayoralty — and lost badly to Rob Ford. Some of his cabinet and caucus colleagues were glad to see him go and a few particular critics said so bluntly. Smitherman had seriously canvassed returning to the pink palace when McGuinty stepped out, but he indicated at the end of October that family obligations to his husband and two small children come first.

Michael Bryant
It is not fair, but the notoriety arising from the August 2009 attack by troubled bike courier Darcy Sheppard seems to block his return to politics. A Bryant candidacy was widely discounted and now one hears nothing.

David Caplan
Still steamed over his firing as Health minister, Caplan was busy seeking support but does not appear to have drawn enough backing to sustain a run.

Dr Eric Hoskins
This bright man came into provincial politics with a big activist following, and was widely celebrated as winner of the St. Paul’s by-election occasioned by Michael Bryant’s departure from Queen’s Park. He very quickly went into the McGuinty cabinet and he is keenly focussed on a leadership run. But Liberal activists report that Hoskins is doing little to sign up supporters, seeming to suppose that his celebrity will allow him to poach delegates from other camps. (Good luck with that, Dr Hoskins.)

Gerard Kennedy
The former Education minister came to grief federally and now would have to face a very tough NDP incumbent on what once was his own turf. He argues that he departed before the gloss went off the McGuinty government. No baggage, perhaps, but lots of attitude — for which many in the pink palace caucus tend to dislike him. Kennedy came first, with 22 percent, in the late January Forum Research poll on vote intentions in the next election (compared to five other possible leaders. But Kennedy’s team of yore is mostly in the Trudeau federal campaign, so he’ll be hard pressed to put together a team that fits. Might he bow out or be an early scratch?

Sandra Pupatello
(announced, November 7) The lively and energetic Pupatello was often the key to McGuinty’s ministerial shuffles but carried no baggage when she left for Bay Street. Her centre-right campaign will be managed by the very able Christine Bomé. And CBC tells that it will be launched tomorrow, Nov. 8. In addition to heavyweight backer Dwight Duncan, look for her to draw Italian support — from Bob Chiarelli, for example — and to benefit down the line from the south Asians signed up by Harinder Takhar.

Charles Sousa
Able and amiable as well as altogether presentable, Sousa is the classic junior minister seeking to bolster his leadership prospects in the next leadership race. But in the event of a deadlock he just might make it all the way. Managing his campaign is Bob Richardson, who deftly guided Lyn McLeod into the leadership following the departure of David Peterson. Campaign kicks off on Saturday.

John Wilkinson
Wilkinson did a superlative job of selling the HST, but it is surely very risky to remind voters of any unpopular tax increase. The lack of a seat is a problem. But members of the McGuinty inner circle are looking past that to Wilkinson’s political skill and personal appeal.

And they're all in their Fifties

Given that our announced or likely leadership contenders got into the politics racket from 1995 through 2010, it’s striking that they are all in their 50s: Pupatello, 50; Hoskins, 52; Kennedy, 52; Wilkinson, 53; Sousa, 54; Murray, 55; Wynne, 59; and Mathews, 59. And it’s interesting that the most ‘senior’ expected candidate –Sandra Pupatello, first elected as an MPP in 1995 — is the youngest, at 50.

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