Romney pulls even in polls

Obama needs strong assertive showing in next debate to catch up.

by Geoffrey Stevens

Anyone who had predicted even a few weeks ago that Mitt Romney would be president of the United States after November would have been laughed out of the Venerable Guild of Pundits, Pollsters and Political Hangers-On.

They are not laughing today.

A Romney victory is becoming a distinct possibility. Barack Obama’s once-comfortable lead is gone. It began to evaporate with his leaden performance in the first debate two weeks ago. One week ago, Real Clear Politics, a website that aggregates the major national polls, showed Obama reduced to a wafer-thin one percentage point lead.

The strong showing by Joe Biden in the vice-presidential debate — I thought he was better informed and more passionate than Paul Ryan — may have slowed the movement to the Republicans, but it did not arrest it. By the start of this week (Sunday), Real Clear Politics had Obama/Biden trailing Romney/Ryan by 1.4 points.

(For comparison, at very same point in the 2008 election campaign, aggregated polls had Obama and Biden 7.6 points ahead of Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin.)

Projections of Electoral College votes must have Democrats tearing their hair. A week ago, Real Clear Politics projected that, despite his post-debate loss of momentum, Obama would take 251 Electoral College votes — just 19 shy of the 270 needed to win — compared to 181 for Romney while states with 106 votes were rated too close to call.

This week, the projected Obama total is down to 201. Romney is up marginally, to 191, while states that seemed probable for Obama are now considered toss-ups, bringing the too-close-to-call category to 146.

Eleven “battleground” states will determine the outcome. They are (with electoral votes in parenthesis): Colorado (9); Florida (29); Iowa (6); Michigan (16); Nevada (6); New Hampshire (4); North Carolina (15); Ohio (18); Pennsylvania (20); Virginia (13); Wisconsin (10)

Obama needs a minimum of 69 electoral votes out of this collection to make it to 270 and a second term in the White House. The calculations shift daily with the polls, but the savants of the afore-mentioned Venerable Guild of Pundits, Etc, Etc, reckon that Obama still has a better chance than Romney of reaching the magic 270.

Most eyes this week are on Ohio with its 18 electoral votes — the theory being that if the Democrats can win rust-belt Ohio, they can also take Michigan and Pennsylvania. Like Michigan, Ohio benefited enormously from Obama’s bailout of the auto industry.

But gratitude only goes so far. In the 2008 election, Obama/Biden took Ohio by a margin of 4.6 percentage points. It looks like a closer call this time. Real Clear Politics has Obama/Biden leading in Ohio by just 1.7 points — 48 per cent to 46.3. Too close to call!

That first debate has had a greater influence than any previous leaders’ debate in US politics. But there is more to it than that.

Thanks in part to Romney’s debate performance, Republicans (and some swing voters) are looking at their candidate through new eyes. He doesn’t seem as wimpish as he did in the primaries. He seems more assured of himself and expresses himself more articulately. Those Republicans who feared he was too liberal, have been reassured by the performance of Ryan, a Tea Party darling, as his running mate.

Democrats don’t know what to make of Obama. Did he simply have a bad night in the first debate? Or is there less to him than his supporters had believed? Did they make a mistake four years ago? Is he up to another four years in the White House?

We’ll have a better idea in the next seven or eight days. The second presidential debate is scheduled for Tuesday this week at Hofstra University on Long Island and third and final one will be the following Monday in crucial Florida.

The situations are reversed now. All Romney has to do to preserve momentum is hold his own. Obama has to win. He can’t afford to lose again if he wants to win in November.

© Copyright 2012 Geoffrey Stevens, All rights Reserved. Written For: StraightGoods.ca